Projected Impact of the Education Tax Credit (School Voucher) Plan on Each New Hampshire Town, NH Department of Education, 2/14/12

In its draft "fiscal impact statement" (attached at the bottom of this page), the New Hampshire Department of Education projected how each town in New Hampshire could be affected in the first year of the proposed voucher program (HB 1607 and SB 372).  An overview of the voucher plan is here.

There is no way to be sure how many students would actually leave public schhol and receive vouchers in each town.  However, NHDOE says that it is providing the estimate as a sample of the impact the plan could have on each town in the first year of the program.  The  impact would increase each year as the numbers of students with vouchers increased.

Only towns that receive state aid would lose state aid when a voucher student leaves the school.  The state would not take back State Wide Property Tax revenues.

The spreadsheet itself is visible here and is displayed below.  We have pulled out a few examples of illustration purposes.  Keep in mind:
  • The legislation allows the program to grow at 25% percent per year, so each future year could add larger numbers.
  • Not all children leaving for private or home schools would receive a voucher.  The school district would not incur these costs for a child leaving for private school, but not receiving a voucher.
  • As the NHDOE projections make clear, half of these children would have left anyway.  Normally, the school system would receive the state grant for these children for another 3 years (to off-set the first 3 years in which the district received no state grant for the student, as discussed here).  However, if that student receives a voucher, the school district would lose the state grant for that child immediately and for 3 years. 
Based on the NHDOE projections for 2013, here's how a sampling of towns would be affected: 
  • Bedford could lose 158 students in the first year.  Of those, 79 students would have left for private or home schools anyway.  The sponsors project that another 79 will be incented to leave by the voucher program.  As a result, the state would reduce Bedford's state grant by $362,837 in the current year and that much again each following year, for 3 years, while those students received vouchers.   In that case, the first group of voucher students leaving Bedford schools would cost Bedford $1,088,511 over 3 years. 
  • Concord could lose 136 students in the first year.  Of those, 68 students would have left for private or home schools anyway.  The sponsors project that another 68 will be incented to leave by the voucher program.  As a result, the state would reduce Concord's state grant by $312,315 in the current year and that much again each following year, for 3 years, while the students received vouchers. In that case, the first group of voucher students leaving Concord schools would cost Concord $936,945 over 3 years.
  • Conway could lose 30 students in the first year.  Of those, 15 students would have left for private or home schools anyway.  The sponsors project that another 15 will be incented to leave by the voucher program.  As a result, the state would reduce Conway's state grant by $68,893 in the current year and that much again each following year, for 3 years, while the students received vouchers. In that case, the first group of voucher students leaving Conway's schools would cost Conway's $206,679 over 3 years.
  • Dover could lose 90 students in the first year.  Of those, 45 students would have left for private or home schools anyway.  The sponsors project that another 45 will be incented to leave by the voucher program.  As a result, the state would reduce Dover's state grant by $206,679 in the current year and that much again each following year, for 3 years, while the students received vouchers. In that case, the first group of voucher students leaving Dover schools would cost Dover $620,037 over 3 years. 
  • Keene could lose 38 students in the first year.  Of those, 19 students would have left for private or home schools anyway.  The sponsors project that another 19 will be incented to leave by the voucher program.  As a result, the state would reduce Keene's state grant by $87,265 in the current year and that much again each following year, for 3 years, while the students received vouchers. In that case, the first group of voucher students leaving Keene schools would cost Keene $261,795 over 3 years.
  • Laconia could lose 40 students in the first year.  Of those, 20 students would have left for private or home schools anyway.  The sponsors project that another 20 will be incented to leave by the voucher program.  As a result, the state would reduce  Laconia's state grant by $91,857 in the current year and that much again each following year, for 3 years, while the students received vouchers. In that case, the first group of voucher students leaving  Laconia schools would cost  Laconia $275,571 over 3 years.
  • Manchester could lose 368 students in the first year.  Of those, 184 students would have left for private or home schools anyway.  The sponsors project that another 184 will be incented to leave by the voucher program.  As a result, the state would reduce Manchester's state grant by $845,089 in the current year and that much again each following year, for 3 years, while the students received vouchers. In that case, the first group of voucher students leaving Manchester schools would cost Manchester $2,535,267 over 3 years.
  • Nashua  could lose 160 students in the first year.  Of those, 80 students would have left for private or home schools anyway.  The sponsors project that another 80 will be incented to leave by the voucher program.  As a result, the state would reduce Nashua's state grant by $367,430 in the current year and that much again each following year, for 3 years, while those students received vouchers.   In that case, the first group of voucher students leaving Nashua's schools would cost Nashua $1,102290 over 3 years. 
  • Tamworth  could lose 6 of their 322 students in the first year.  Of those, 3 students would have left for private or home schools anyway.  The sponsors project that another 3 will be incented to leave by the voucher program.  As a result, the state would reduce Tamworth's state grant by $13,779 in the current year and that much again each following year, for 3 years, while those students received vouchers.   In that case, the first group of voucher students leaving Tamworth's schools would cost Tamworth $1,102290 over 3 years. 
  • Portsmouth could lose 72 students, but would lose no state grant money because they receive not state grant support.
  • All other towns are available on the NHDOE spreadsheet below and here.

Updated 3/14/12: See the newest "Sample Towns" update to the Department of Education fiscal impact analysis below or by clicking here to view the spreadsheet in your browser.

Sample Impact of HB 1607 and SB 372 ETC program on New Hampshire town in year 1 updated March 11 2012