The Republican Liberty Caucus Poll Results

posted Feb 23, 2012, 5:42 PM by Bill Duncan   [ updated Mar 1, 2012, 5:40 AM ]
DNHPE Comment: Senator Forsythe sent me these poll results in response to my request to him and to Senator Nancy Stiles (R-Hampton).  He said that the polls is not written up in a formal way because it "was not a poll for public release, just something informal to gauge support within the district amongst likely voters."

The results Senator Forsythe provided are for the district of Senator Stiles.  Presumably, Senator Forsythe provided similar reports to the other Republican Senators.

This is very odd -  it's a partisan, campaign-style poll, rigged to get the wrong answer, surveying Republican and Independent voters, conducted during a legislative session for the purpose of influencing votes on a bill.

It is not clear whether Senator Forsythe actually understands the extent to which he is misleading his colleagues.  The poll itself is clearly not intended to measure what the public is thinking on the issue. It was clear from the way Senator Stiles referred to the poll results in a public meeting that she trusted Senator Forsythe to have provided legitimate poll results.  However, as a pollster friend of mine said, "a candidate who allowed these results to guide her campaign would be in for a big surprise!"

Poll was conducted on behalf of the Republican Liberty Caucus of New Hampshire by The Dennehy Group.  


Republican and Independent voters were surveyed in Senate District 24 with the following script and question:
I'm calling with an important survey regarding education legislation at the State House in Concord.  A private school choice system allows parents the option of sending their child to the school of their choice, whether that school is public or private, including both religious and non-religious schools.
Question 1
Some states give tax credits to businesses if they donate money to nonprofit organizations that help pay for a child's PRIVATE education.  The New Hampshire legislature is currently considering this kind of donation tax credit system, and the average tax credit scholarship would be limited to about 60 percent of per pupil cost in public schools.
Would you say you favor or oppose this tax-credit scholarship system?
Question 2
If a candidate for NH State Senate favored such an education tax credit proposal would be more or less likely to support their re-election?

Results (keeping in mind that the number of samples on a town level is low and therefore more subject to uncertainty):

F3 Data Favor System Oppose System Grand Total
GREENLAND Count of Q1 73.68% 26.32% 100.00%
Count of Q2 73.68% 26.32% 100.00%
HAMPTON Count of Q1 76.92% 23.08% 100.00%
Count of Q2 76.92% 23.08% 100.00%
HAMPTON FALLS Count of Q1 75.00% 25.00% 100.00%
Count of Q2 75.00% 25.00% 100.00%
NEW CASTLE Count of Q1 33.33% 66.67% 100.00%
Count of Q2 33.33% 66.67% 100.00%
NEWTON Count of Q1 53.85% 46.15% 100.00%
Count of Q2 53.85% 46.15% 100.00%
NORTH HAMPTON Count of Q1 57.14% 42.86% 100.00%
Count of Q2 57.14% 42.86% 100.00%
RYE Count of Q1 64.00% 36.00% 100.00%
Count of Q2 64.00% 36.00% 100.00%
SEABROOK Count of Q1 51.85% 48.15% 100.00%
Count of Q2 51.85% 48.15% 100.00%
SOUTH HAMPTON Count of Q1 50.00% 50.00% 100.00%
Count of Q2 50.00% 50.00% 100.00%
STRATHAM Count of Q1 56.52% 43.48% 100.00%
Count of Q2 56.52% 43.48% 100.00%
Total Count of Q1 61.46% 38.54% 100.00%